Greedy guts

The supposed problem of winning too much

Tadej Pogačar winning yet another stage at this year’s Giro d’Italia.

He really tried not to win. It was stage 20 of the 2024 Tour de France and Tadej Pogačar said he wasn’t going to win. He had won four stages of the race already, a number usually reserved for the sprinters, and he had a great chance of making it five on stage 21, the final time trial. And so he wasn’t going to try and win stage 20. He would let the breakaway¹ go.

And he stuck to his word. Pogačar and his team didn’t work to bring the breakaway back. But Remco Evenepoel, sitting third and within, if not spitting distance, then at least a slingshot’s distance of second place, put his team on the front. The breakaway that the Tadej Pogačar had supposedly gifted the stage win were slowly and steadily reeled in.

Evenepoel then attacked himself and tried to win the race, tried to distance Jonas Vingegaard. If he could put some time between himself and Vingegaard before the final time trial he might be able to nab second place. But that tactic swiftly backfired when Vingegaard counterattacked, sent Evenepoel spinning backwards, and took Pogačar with him.

The man who said he would not try and win the race didn’t ride with Vingegaard. Why should he? He was five minutes ahead of Vingegaard and seven ahead of Evenepoel. He didn’t need more time. His main rival was an inch ahead of him on the road. And so after Evenepoel’s team had brought back the breakaway, Vingegaard essentially towed Pogačar to the line.

Pogačar, it almost goes without saying, then won the sprint.

So Pogačar won his fifth stage, and then on stage 21 his sixth. In his two grand tour victories this year at the Giro d’Italia² and then the Tour, Pogačar not only won both races overall, but 12 stages too.

Those numbers are ridiculous. Are they too much?

Well, depends who you ask. Pogačar was already winning too much during the first week of this year’s Giro d’Italia according to Sean Kelly. Sean Kelly knows a lot more about the dynamics of the professional peloton than me.³ So he knows that other teams would prefer it if Tadej Pogačar didn’t win so many races. Perhaps he should leave some to them.

Questions were also asked after stage 20 of the Tour de France. Should Pogačar have let Vingegaard win the stage? Should he have sat on his wheel to the line, safe in the knowledge that the Tour de France was all but won?

Tadej didn’t think so. “You don’t give away stages to your closest competition,” he said simply. Had it been Adam Yates, Pogačar’s teammate and loyal lieutenant towing him up the mountain, perhaps it would have been different. But perhaps not. “It’s a sport where you want to win, you need to win, and you’re paid to win. It’s a pressure, and you need to deliver, otherwise it’s not good for you.”

Whether a rider should win all the races they can, or gift some to other riders to maintain their popularity and status in the peloton is a problem peculiar to cycling. In what other sport are there discussions about whether a competitor or a team should win again, or whether they should take it easy?

But this is because cycling, particularly road cycling, is a peculiar sport. There is time before and then within the race for Tadej Pogačar to decide whether he is going to win, or try to win, anyway. On stage 20 he decided beforehand that the breakaway could win. But they were reeled back in, and so the race opened up for the best cyclist in the world.

The race was there to win, and so he tried to win. If Tadej Pogačar tries to win in 2024, he usually does.

And he should. If the other teams think that Pogačar winning too much is a problem, they need to beat him. Having said that, I’m glad that’s their problem, not mine. If Tadej Pogačar starts a race that suits him, he’s the favourite. It can be, in the words of Sean Kelly, “a lot,” especially if you’re trying to beat him.

For anyone in the peloton craving a race where Tadej won’t win, they should give the Olympics a try. Pogačar won’t win, because he won’t be there, after pulling out with extreme fatigue.

Perhaps he is a normal bloke after all.

1. A breakaway in cycling is one or more riders who are out in front of the peloton (main group of riders) trying to stay away and win the race. This move is often futile and the bunch, or at least some of the bunch, catches them and wins the race.

2. The Giro d’Italia is like the Tour de France a three-week stage race. It is generally considered almost as prestigious as the Tour. The other three-week stage race in the cycling calendar is the Vuelta a España.

3. Sean Kelly is widely considered as one of the best riders of all time. The Irishman won the Vuelta a España, 21 grand tour stage wins, and many many other races during his career.

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